Gulf avoidance is replacing Gulf diversion nine weeks into Strait of Hormuz conflict, project44 data shows

Weekly diversions fell but congestion at key ports continues to climb as major trade lanes route away from the Gulf

CHICAGO, May 07, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Nearly nine weeks into the Strait of Hormuz conflict, the latest data from project44 reveals a supply chain that is no longer reacting to disruption. It is reorganizing around it.

The findings come from project44's latest Supply Chain Insights report, which analyzes diversion patterns, port dwell times, and trade lane shifts. Since project44's last report in late April, which identified crisis-level congestion building across Gulf ports, the data now shows a new phase of activity. Diversion volumes have fallen sharply as carriers shift from reactive rerouting to structural Gulf avoidance.

Key findings

• Diversion volumes are falling but remain elevated. Weekly diversions dropped 55% in the final week of the period, falling to 2,960 shipments after holding between 5,000 and 6,600 through late April. Volumes still sit well above the pre-closure baseline of under 2,000 per week.
• UAE port congestion hits record high. Import dwell at Jebel Ali, the UAE's largest container port, has risen every week since the closure to reach 64.6 days, a 297% increase over nine consecutive weeks of unbroken growth with no clearing mechanism in place.
• Port congestion continues to climb at absorbing hubs. Import dwell at Nhava Sheva (Mumbai) now exceeds 19 days, a 155% increase since early March. Mundra, Singapore, and Shanghai are also processing imports more slowly than usual.
• Transshipment delays in Mumbai remain well above pre-conflict levels. Transshipment containers are waiting an average of 15 days at the port, an improvement over the prior week's 30-day average but still significantly above early-March levels.
• Gulf-adjacent trade lanes are seeing the steepest declines. The five lanes showing the steepest volume declines all involve the UAE or Saudi Arabia, with drops exceeding 58%. Notably, China appears in three of those five declining lanes despite Iran explicitly granting passage rights through the Strait. The data suggests trade flows are responding to risk perception rather than diplomatic arrangements.
• Alternative corridors are experiencing high volumes. New Zealand to US trade grew 142%, the largest lane increase observed. European countries, including Belgium, Portugal, and Italy, account for three of the top five growing lanes.
  
  

"Diversions aren't the lead story anymore," said Eric Fullerton, VP of Product Marketing and Data Insights at project44. "The data that matters now is downstream — port dwell times still climbing weeks after diversion volumes peaked, and Gulf trade lane volumes that are down over 58%. This is exactly the kind of disruption where Decision Intelligence separates the companies that react from the ones that were already positioned, knowing which carriers are operating with high performance and available capacity on alternative lanes, where port congestion is building before it becomes a bottleneck, and having agents that can act on that intelligence in real time."

Read the full Supply Chain Insights report here.

About project44

project44 is the Decision Intelligence Platform for the modern supply chain. Its context-based AI transforms fragmented logistics management into unified intelligence, bringing certainty to global supply chain operations. With intelligent transportation management, end to end visibility, yard management and last mile solutions, project44 connects over 1.5 billion shipments annually for over 1,000 leading brands in manufacturing, automotive, retail, life sciences, food and beverage, CPG, and oil, chemical and gas. Learn more at project44.com.

Media contact

press@project44.com

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